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Nu scrisesem nimic despre "evenimentele din Turcia" fiindcă de la început am sesizat inconsistenţe şi ambiguităţi, aşa cum reieşeau ele din informaţiile disponibile. Senzaţia de făcătură se generalizează, dar asta poate fi o mascare a adevăratei naturi a puciului - poate chiar a fost unul anti-Erdogan, dar cu sprijin redus (contrar anticipărilor planificatorilor).
- Lovitura de stat nu a avut un lider clar (sau un "comitet", prezentat public). S-a prezentat doar o schiţă de program, "revenirea la un stat laic".- Nu şi-au asigurat imediat monopolul comunicării (mijloacele media "insubordonate" ar fi fost închise sau distruse, internetul blocat).
- Nu au avut imediat superioritate aeriană totală (sau măcar parţială), avionul lui Erdogan n-a fost doborât. Închiderea spaţiului aerian a fost anunţată de partea loialistă din armată. Când am auzit că un avion militar a doborât un elicopter de-al puciştilor, am ştiut cine va câştiga.
- Nu au fost ridicate sau lichidate persoanele-cheie: un puci care se respectă are un hit-list de câteva mii de nume, care trebuie "rezolvate" în maxim câteva ore, altfel trec la contraatac.
- Militarii ieşiţi în stradă aveau greţuri să tragă în suporterii lui Erdogan. La un puci real, "care pe care", tragi în plin "până se înroşesc ţevile", nu stai de tangouri. Unii militari au declarat ulterior că au fost scoşi în stradă "ca un exerciţiu" - semn că puciştii nu controlau situaţia/loialitatea trupei şi aveau nevoie de ei "să fie la număr".
- Reacţiile prudente şi destul de tardive ale liderilor statelor NATO, şi cele ale mass-mediei occidentale. Dacă puciştii erau dintr-o tabără ostilă, ar fi fost vehemenţi împotriva lor, imediat. Ambiguitatea declaraţiilor şi ştirilor semnalase o simpatie tacită pentru pucişti. "Precizările ulterioare", de după eşecul puciului, o scot şi mai mult în evidenţă. De exemplu, Ponta, care denunţă "slugile" RO dar nu şi pe stăpânii lor, aparent susţinând guvernul legitim al Turciei, atacat de aceleaşi forţe pe care "le denunţase doar pentru România".
La The Saker, mi se pare cea mai realistă descriere a evenimentelor. SITREP înseamnă "situation report", termen militar traductibil prin "raport de situaţie (operativă)". Pe scurt: puciul ar fi fost pornit de "facţiunea pro-război" (cu Rusia, Siria...), împotriva regimului Erdogan care "s-a sucit" şi ar vrea repararea relaţiilor cu Rusia, inclusiv reluarea proiectului conductei de gaze Turkish Stream.
Military Coup in Turkey SITREP, by Scott
Pro-NATO military coup failed after a few hours. The rebels immediately closed the straits of Dardanelles for all ships to stop Russian ships traveling to and from Syria. The coup organizers wanted closer relations with NATO and Washington. Turks want closer relations with Russia, and not with Washington. Turks want to survive and eat, and to stay warm in coming winter. They need Russia’s market and Russia’s gas for these. Everyone knows by now that any pro- Washington coup means war, foreign occupation, collapse of economy, misery and civilian deaths. Everyone talks about Ukraine as an example.
- Prime Minister of Turkey said that the country protecting the opposition leader Gulan, who is believed to be an organizer of the military coup, cannot be a friend of Turkey. Needless to say, he means the US. It’s a huge step for Turkey towards Russia and Eurasia and away from the West. It looks like Turkey has decided that non-West is winning in a standoff with the West, and that they are not really “Europeans” after all.
- The Mayor of Ankara: Russian jet was shot down by people loyal to the shadow government and by a follower of radical cleric Gulen to destroy Turkey’s relations with Russia,
- Erdogan demonstrate a miracle of political endurance. He is not Ukraine’s Yanukovich, who is hiding in Rostov. For those saying that military “wanted” to give more freedom to people and to politically solve the Kurds problem. The military coup was pro-Washington and pro-NATO and against Russia. It’s all we need to know. I don’t support Erdogan’s policies to keep many people in jails including the military officers and journalists, but he is good for Russia. A maidan in Turkey and Washington’s rule over Turkey would be truly devastating.
- At the very beginning of the coup the Western media and all of the so called military experts and analysts were in support of the coup. The White house was silent. The White house expressed support for Erdogan government via its tweeter only after it became obvious that the coup failed. Washington is a fair weather friend.
- After the coup failed, Donald Tusk came out angry and declared that now the EU will change its relations with Turkey. Oh, the irony! I can’t even comment on this here, it’s so profoundly deep.
Now, on the EU website he expresses support for “democratically elected” Erdogan, hehehe….
The entire EU government is in Mongolia now, trying to persuade Mongols that they are truly a European nation and that they should stand against undemocratic regimes of Russia and China. Mongols listen and nod politely, thinking: “these pale devils are up to no good.”
- For the future references, Russian internet is ablaze discussing how they would act if there is a coup against Putin: people would go on the streets in support of the president everywhere, demanding from FSB actions.
- Erdogan said that Turkey could not be ruled from Pennsylvania.
- Good relationships with Russia is the most important for Turkey now.
- Turkey’s prime minister just said that the Russia’s Turkish Stream is very important for Turkey.
- Internet is full of images of Erdogan getting an Oskar for his stellar performance.
- Ukro media is crying out that Turkey is not a democracy and that Erdogan “has to go.”
- Turkish soldiers, arrested for the coup, say that they were told it was a drill; they didn’t know about a coup and wanted no part of it.
14. RIA Novosti, TASS and RT report that the coup members took control of the frigate Yavuz and kidnapped the commander of the Turkish NAVY
A group of supporters of the coup seized the frigate Yavuz on the main naval base of Turkey, Golcuk. In the hands of the rebels is also the commander of the Turkish Navy, according to Reuters referring to the Greek military source.
RIA Novosti writes that the plotters took control of the frigate Yavuz.
15. Eight military coup members landed in Greece in a Turkish military helicopter and have requested political asylum. Greece to Return Helicopter With Runaway Turkish Coup Supporters to Ankara.
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