The proposed theme of the lecture was “the Geopolitical conflicts in the post-Soviet space” is undoubtedly difficult for me, as a person, a political science never specifically involved. However, given that I rarely (quite the contrary) are invited to share their thoughts in such a representative public institutions, after some hesitation, decided to try something to say on a given topic. I want to stress that what I say next is only the fruit of their own thought – any device that can cook for me lyrics, or at least theses, in the movement “new Russia” does not exist. I also want to note that due to workload, preliminary the contents of the lecture with the organizers of the event did not agree. And, because, perhaps, some of the themes that are expected of me to hear, will not be lit, which does not exclude their discussions further questions. Also don’t expect me scientific justification, judgment and references to the works of famous political scientists and scientific-reference apparatus. The lecture was written “on the knee” and does not claim to be scientific. Presentation of the plan to build as follows:
- My understanding of the geopolitical situation in the world and in the country taking into account the impact of global trends on the development of political and military-political crises in the post-Soviet space and Russia. Strategic and tactical objectives of Pindostan and led by their so-called “new world order” in the territory of Eurasia.
- The forecast of the confrontation between Russia and the West in post-Soviet space and, in the first place in Ukraine, in the framework of running the West program “reformatting” of the specified space with its further fragmentation and deprivation of the remnants of sovereignty and independence.
- Objectives, strategy and tactics of the Russian Federation in the fight for their own survival and sovereignty in the actual refusal of the West of peaceful coexistence within the framework of the existing realities.
1. The geopolitical situation in the world and the plans of the Western bloc.
First of all, I would like to indicate that in his analysis of the development of geopolitical processes in the World are based solely on the facts. No statements, ideological concepts and myrrh-streaming performances of Western politicians and political scientists have for me no value and are treated solely as propaganda. In modern Western politics concepts such as honor, trust, responsibility and decency have long since lost all meaning. Turned into an empty phrase. Not to say that in previous ages they were crucial, but in a post-Christian era in which there is still leading in the global political arena West (conditionally Euro-Atlantic world, the cynicism and hypocrisy of its leading representatives have long crossed any borders. But the facts are stubborn things. And their sequence is indicative, in my view, is immutable: after the defeat of the USSR in the “cold war”, political subordination and economic robbery formed on its ruins state formations, the Euro-Atlantic bloc led by Pindostan began to a global reorganization of the World according to their own templates and exclusively for your own needs, very far from interests “performatively” territories. Typical signs of this “reformatting”: the absolute subordination of all economic and political organization of the regions for the needs of the United States. The resistance of these needs – pressure and interference in the internal Affairs up to the military invasion and complete destruction.
“Zakoksovanie” Western world order, a clear distinction of the World into “metropolis” (Pindostan and its closest allies) and “periphery”, where the rest of the land. The need for this distinction arises from already predicted for the coming decades acute shortage of vital resources (primarily biological). “Grazing habitat” constantly and uncontrollably growing humanity continues to be fragmented geographically, culturally and economically, requires unconditional response. However, the answer seems to be produced by managers the centers of Western civilization on the problem, looks disconcertingly for all Nations, peoples, cultures and Nations who are not lucky enough (or Vice versa) to be in “the zone” Euro-Atlanticism. Simply speaking, all of them (and Russia in particular) invariably invited to disappear. Disappear as independent centres of national-cultural, economic and civilizational development, transferring all control functions and rights of a similar construction in a single world centre, built on the basis of the deceased in the Bose Anglo-Saxon civilization. (Deceased because of the so-called “universal values” and other new-fangled inventions of the last 2-3 decades are extremely far from any traditional national and cultural interests, including Anglo-Saxon). It is only within the “domain” of a continuous increase consumption to a limited number of “eaters” is planned to be maintained at the expense of the “periphery”, where, on the contrary, the needs and the number of “consumers” should be reduced in a natural way. What I mean by “natural attenuation”? More about this later, but for now let’s just review some facts.
Let’s go back 50-70 years ago, to the era as it is accepted to speak now, “bipolar world”. In 1945 a Joint effort was defeated German Nazism and Japanese militarism, then the World almost immediately turned to the confrontation between former allies – the “Eastern” and “Western” blocs. Analyze the practice of both units is the creation of worldwide satellites and their economic and political support. Let us leave aside the USSR – a country where most of us were born, is gone to history. Refer to Pindostan. So: after defeating Germany and Japan, Pindostan first business dominate their economy and foreign policy, but from the direct looting of the refrain. On the contrary, the economy gets defeated enemies within a single capitalist market powerful financial injections and rapidly recovered, so much so that it begins to introduce competition to the industry directly to Pindostan. Increasing the standard of living and the population of the defeated countries successfully takes its place among the so-called “Golden billion” of people receiving the maximum social good on the planet. Look next. Hot conflicts in the cold war erupt one after other. The war in Korea. Pindostan and its
Valid, in my opinion, to call yet a number of States and entire regions, in which the struggle for hegemony between the socialist camp and the Western bloc, developed in the most favored and has achieved impressive results in the development of economy and social sphere, without changing, thus, the underlying political, cultural and religious foundations. Israel, Saudi Arabia and other countries that have natural resources or cheap labour – they are all under “military-political umbrella.” Pindostan and its allies, during the second half of the 20th century developed rapidly, rapidly, both economically and socially. Until the 1990s. And then… and then collapsed, the Warsaw Pact and then the USSR. Collapsed as a result of internal contradictions and a direct betrayal of the elites who refuses to believe and follow the dominant ideology and, instead, embraced Western “values” in their purely materialistic-hedonistic, consumer understanding. The surrender was so rapid and complete, and trophies so huge and diverse that for two decades has provided a “Golden century” in Pindostan and Europe. Continuous economic growth, accompanied by the rise of consumption, continued until 2008 and fruits are used not only winners, but also many “foreign players” (in particular China). Due to the inclusion in the system of capitalist economy huge territories and resources there has been a rapid transition to a post industrial economy in Pindostan and other leading countries of the Western world. However, it’s not about that.
I want to focus your attention on the fact that the design of Pindostan and NATO as the only global military and political hegemon almost immediately resulted in the change of approaches to the vanquished. It’s no secret that for all Russian and many other so-called “reformers” waiting “disinterested aid” in the reformation of the economy and domestic policy of Pindostan was almost a postulate. The most rational of them believed that assistance and if not, then not to oppose the entry of former Soviet republics in the European part of the Western domain” nobody – just to comply – and all the self-other is formed, in 5-10 years everything will be “as at people”. However, even those who are in the “domain” is formally admitted (former COMECON countries, have already fallen into the EU), got the “doughnut hole” and not the coveted social Paradise. “Free cheese” naturally led to a trap. Hungary, Bulgaria and Poland, and the Baltic countries, which have achieved real independence from the Soviet Union to immediately become satellites of a United Europe and to occupy in the economy of the market place and supplier of cheap labor is still relatively “lucky”, despite significant fall in the level of life and increasing economic and social degradation. But first caught under a direct hit NATO Yugoslavia was the place where “New Hegemony” was first tested in practice updated approaches to the vanquished. Country devastated and divided, but noone is in a hurry to help her. And even a formal Pindosi ally – “liberated “Kosovo” trimmed Serbs, and remained a “black hole” on the body of Europe. Criminal ulcers. No one is going there is nothing to recover and restore order. Relieved? Well, now, and live how you want, even eat each other raw material. We are your tasks agreed with your help – and we to you do not. A clear demonstration of the well-known adage about the Sheriff and the problems of Indians.
For Yugoslavia was followed by other victims: Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. In each of these countries were involved in different scenarios of a military defeat. Iraq as a state was swept by a coalition led by Pindostan through direct land large-scale military invasion, Afghanistan was occupied with the active support of the local tribal militias in Libya and NATO were used only by aircraft and special forces, not even trying to occupy territory. However, common to all the three major military operations was the consequences of the invasion. Iraq has effectively disappeared as a single state after a decade of Pindosi occupation it has become one big battlefield for the armies of ISIS is Sunni, Shia, Kurds. On his land continue to fight Pindosi PMCs and the Iranian “revolutionary guards”. In the country’s social catastrophe, chaos, famine and epidemics, mass emigration and cultural savagery. Only in the oil fields in the lower reaches of the Shatt al-Arab, the relative calm afforded the same PMC. But Pindostan prior to this and now there is no case. Basic resources under the control of the set, and the “problems of survival of Indians do not disturb the Sheriff.” Go ahead. Afghanistan. Over the years the Pindosi occupation in the economy marked the highest growth in just one area – tenfold increased the production of drugs. With all the ensuing consequences. The war is not completed, the confrontation between the Taliban and tribal militia will inevitably lead to the resumption of hostilities immediately after the withdrawal of the main occupying forces. The country was ravaged and destroyed, and remained at the same level – occupiers are not invested in the real sector of the economy is nothing.
But the most remarkable specimen of a “new strategy” is Libya. The country just in bambili the early middle ages and had forgotten about it. Now they all are fighting against all the rapidly diminishing resources, and the social disaster that makes residents westernized coastal cities to shed crocodile tears for the “cursed dictatorial regime.” Even to control the oilfields of Pindostan and its
Now Syria. Country writhes in agony. Even if President Assad will manage to retain power, full control over the whole territory of the country can only dream about. Ethnic and religious massacres, bloody nightmare, hunger and repression is widespread and no humanitarian assistance is not enough to compensate for the damage at least to a small degree. Pindostan and its
The reasons stem from the premise that the Earth is not able to provide the growing appetites of the “Golden billion”, which for various reasons were hundreds of millions of “extra” mouths. These mouths need to be reduced. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce by any means the excessive populations of the resource colonies. After all, people tend to consume resources not only in the “domain”, but where resources are received in the specified domain. If people in the colonies will be less, “surplus product” will begin to reach their destinations in a larger volume. The main thing that worked “pipe”, and its staff should be the minimum necessary – no more. But to kill people on their own, first, economically costly, and secondly, is fraught with serious psychological trauma for performers from among Saginov that can lead to undesirable excesses. Therefore it is necessary to create conditions whereby the “savages” will destroy themselves. And for that just need to bring down and bring it to a complete degradation of the entire infrastructure, including power. And prevent its recovery.
Take Syria. For example, if Assad starts to defeat the Islamists of the ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, its fast “acrobat” on charges of “violation of human rights.” But since now the Islamists too intensified – bomb for “terrorism”. The war must go on! The longer the better. Saudi Arabia stopped listening to Pindostan and helps “bad” to the authorities of Egypt, to crush the Islamist insurgency? Here’s how? Perfect! Pindostan immediately restore relations with the worst enemy – Iran in defiance imagines themselves to the Saudis. And indifferently look at the developments in Yemen, demonstrating that they are now satisfied with any option. “Divide and conquer!” – nothing new, no need to invent.
Similar tactics Pindostan used, in my opinion, also in relation to Israel. The country has become too committed to their own national interests and wish to follow them without regard to Washington. While critical frameworks for the Jewish state does not come out, but continuing political pressure on Tel Aviv on the issue of combating militants in the Gaza Strip is very symptomatic. Apparently, Israeli Jews were in the category of “extra mouths” in a shrinking of the “Golden billion” and their turn will come soon. Two things yet save Israel – the lack of its own natural resources and powerful army, which Pindostan considers as a possible tool for its own purposes in the region. Well, it is worth noting reasonable restraint of government, not hastening to pounce on bloodless neighbors.
In addition to the above reasons, the actions of the Pindosi global “demolition” world order historically have another Mercantile basis, associated with excessive volumes traded worldwide no wealthy Pindosi currency and huge public debt. “How much rope does not curl – all end.” Well, a few more years, well, even 10-15 years will pass before Pindostan will have to declare a state default and “forgive” all debtors all the bales “green paper” and all of its debt obligations, which the last 2 decades paid for real the supply of resources. And then? No, everything is clear – then Pindostan will declare that “this will never happen again” and will release new dollars and new securities. What is needed to once deceived partners began to accept them in exchange for real value? I suppose you have already guessed. Need to all over the world was permanent chaos and, against this background of Pindostan and its closest
But back to the topic of the lecture. What I want to see in the post-Soviet geopolitical space, Pindostan and its allies? The answer follows from the previous postulates. Want to see the PIPE. Which resources flow, they are directed and controlled from the point of production to point of consumption. It is in this desire is the material cause of the conflict between Russia and Pindostan (with their satellites). Whatever our Russian elite period of 1990s, but to call it a purely anti-national elite is impossible. In their own way, some of which came in 1991, to power people understand their activity as useful for the country and its population. Blatant historical and political (and economic) illiteracy put “blinders” on President Yeltsin and many of his associates. It seemed to them that in the interests of the West, Russia’s integration in its membership rights let younger, but a real partner. It was assumed that the West not only “take” but also “share”, and even if you are not going to share anything, it is still economic prosperity and social guarantees with a high standard of living will be achieved through fair trade resources with the drastic reduction government spending on defense, as “unnecessary” in terms of long-term strategic alliance with a former enemy. It is from this “starry-eyed” setting (“We’re you voluntarily surrendered? So put us on our feet, like Germany and Japan!”) from 1991 to 1999, Russia obediently followed in the mainstream of political and economic interests of the victors, thoughtlessly and immediately fulfilling all their requirements and recommendations. And if voluntary political subordination of this unit when Pres Putin began a gradual retreat, which has come down in 2014 to complete gap, but in business he still continues.
However, the gradual realization of the fact that Russia no one in Pindostan and the West in general is not going to be considered otherwise than as a powerless commodity supplier, led to a course correction. The Russian claims, at first sounding like a timid wishes “to show respect”, has been met with counter-claims contingent of the West. After all, as in the Russian elite was a growing recognition of “the West” ignoring the most intimate and vital interests of the country of its “partners”, and on the contrary, showing large appetites in relation to balances of economic and political sovereignty of Russia. Try draw a diagram of what it looks like in the eyes of the international (read Western) financial-industrial oligarchy of modern Russian economic system. As “PIPE”. Nothing more. The pipe resources are controlled in the West sector of the economy. In the opposite direction are limited investments and, mainly, the stream is incised green paper in payment for delivered. A significant part of this flow then returns back to the West in the form of investments, deposits, etc. (because in the eyes of most of our homegrown oligarchs of the West and so became the “Avalon”, where they dream forever be embedded). However, unfortunately, a significant amount of money and resources remains in Russia. It contains “encumbrance” – population (neither more – nor less – 140 million people) with his social security, his own large army with costly yao, aviation, and fleet), the remains of the science, space, education, health, etc, however, regularly destroy and kill, but the rate is still low. The government eats a lot, again. Industry, which had no time or were too lazy to buy and bankrupt.
If all this is a “burden” to carry and to leave around the “pipe” only the wait staff (Margaret Thatcher, if I’m not mistaken, recommended that the population be reduced to 50 million in the former USSR) the “return” of the pipe (its efficiency) will increase very significantly. Perhaps significantly. Vacated and vital components (not only and not so much oil and gas, and clean fresh water, forests and related bio-resources can be directed to the benefit “of the population of avalon”. To utilize the “extra natives”, by the way, it is possible to bleed them, for example, the following dangerous the younger the enemy falling under “reduction” – with China. But more on that below. And may result in “recovery” on the ruins of Russia will arise a hundred little “encumbrances” in the form of mini-States, all of them will be completely controlled and if any of them will lead to obedience” quickly, inexpensively and efficiently as unfortunate Libya. Part of these mini-States, being “in the pipe” will besluttet and tichet, but who cares about the natives?
Now, finally, move on to Ukraine, as the most important and “hot” point throughout the post-Soviet space. What are the similarities and differences of Ukraine, for example, 15 years ago, defeated Yugoslavia or modern Tunisia? The similarity is in used under the direct patronage of Western (primarily Pindosi) intelligence technology. Taking advantage of the inability and total corruption of the local sub-elites (which themselves had nurtured for more than two decades), to excite popular discontent and (under the guidance of this same sub-elite) guide him to self-destruct. To provoke acute socio-economic crisis and domestic instability. Goals? Simple to the point of stupidity. In the economic sphere: destroy knotted to the Russian market and integrated from the time of the USSR’s industrial production. One shot “killed two birds” – the competition is destroyed Western corporations in Ukraine and undermined (by the destruction of production and supply of components) high-tech (primarily military) production in Russia. In the political sphere: to put “Russian podsetio” blade in the face of an openly hostile States source and “model” for internal turmoil. It is regrettable to state that both Pindostan have successfully resolved. Ukraine as an independent state by the own hands of the oligarchy put yourself in a coffin. No matter how the events unfolded, the changes are irreversible. The country is doomed to decay and degradation, and the people – to depopulation and mass emigration even in that hypothetical case would be won by military victory in Novorossiya and even more fantastic version of the victory over Russia. To save myself the Ukraine only one way – by an immediate return to the status of the close friendship with the Russian Federation, and even better with the inclusion into the Empire or, at least, in the Union state. But while it sounds fantastic too. And the reason this fantasy lies not in the politics of Kiev, and in Moscow’s position.
Ukraine as a tool – only that its importance to Pindostan and its
Unable or not daring to support V. Yanukovych (though, to his credit, he did everything possible for its demise), Moscow faced a choice – to accept the loss or to fight. The choice was, as they say, “between a bad or very bad.” However, the reality has surpassed all expectations. Selected was “intermediate” option: “neither two nor one and a half.” As often happens, it was the worst of the worst. On the one hand, Russia has not become passively wait for her to finally humiliate and expel from Sevastopol, when all the enterprises-partners, who worked on her MIC, eliminate the framework of the “align to European standards.” But to go to the end also did not dare. Folk performances of the Russian population of Ukraine has been supported of late, insufficient and indecisive. To defeat the enemy, while he was extremely weak and virtually helpless, did not dare. Events followed the usual for Pindostan and the West channel: the path of negotiations and concessions. As they say “one step forward, two steps back.” The same thing happened in the 1990s in the former Yugoslavia, where decisive and successful action YUNA repeatedly “stoped” subsequent diplomatic agreements until the moment when the enemy was so strong that it could win a military victory. To continue this topic will not – more than once it was covered. I believe that such recent history is well known. In fact, Russia was involved in the bloody conflict, with it, the fact that Russian troops directly in it directly on the territory of Donbass are not participating, does not play a decisive role.
Starting with the Crimean events in the eyes of the world (worldview which, unfortunately, is mainly formed by the Western media) to present Russia as an aggressor. And even attempt to “honorable retreat” demonstrated by the “Minsk-1 and Minsk-2″ the enemy is not adopted and is not met with understanding. Ukraine, being armed by Pindostan and NATO, constantly preparing for war. As a sample of the upcoming action in the Ukrainian blogosphere openly discussed the operation of the army of Croatia for the destruction of Serbian Krajina, whose loss was so rapid, that the JNA did not have time to intervene. What is the new escalation of hostilities right Kiev regime? If Poroshenko proceeded from the genuine interests of Ukraine and its people, for anything. According to common calculation, he was crying with joy, concluding the Minsk agreement, allowing him to keep the Donbas as part of the country and to stop suicidal for the state of war. But for Pindostan, who (they believe) to lure Russia into a strategic dead end trap, such a solution is impossible. They want war and they will certainly achieve. Even if Russia will turn a blind eye to the military destruction of Novorossiya, inevitably followed by an escalation in the Crimea.
With the military victory of Ukraine over Russia to Pindostan especially, because what is unreal. Long, incoherent, indecisive war, constantly and gradually expanding and becoming more and more bloody – this is the goal. The West will satisfy even the extension of the new outside of Russia, Donbass – if only the front was preserved. Than it will be longer, the better. And will remain at the same level – too bad. Victory in this war is seen as the Anglo-Saxons not in the form of tank columns with yellow and blue prapor on red Square, and on the analogy of Feb 1917, the year when, tired of the protracted and pointless war, then Russian society, more recently (in 1914 year) enthusiastically singing “God save the Tsar!” under the balcony of the Winter Palace, with no less enthusiasm inspired from the outside and led from the inner circle of the King conspiracy and rebellion, the consequences of which are well known to all of you. The only thing that does NOT suit the West, so it is full and quick military victory of Russia, the defeat and capitulation of the anti-human and the puppet regime in Kiev, the liberation of Novorossiya, the liberation of Kiev and holding in Ukraine of really free elections. They fear and try to avoid methods of carrot and stick. It threatened to expand sanctions, beckoning them unrealistic abolition and a return to the “European family.” Sorry, we can say that the proven tactics in centuries until now, judging by actions, not solved by those who determine the policy of Russia in the Ukrainian direction. Though, perhaps that the prospect to finally be “outlawed” in the eyes of the international financial oligarchy scares many “liberals” in the government more than a repetition of the disaster of a century ago.