Arţakh - câteva concluzii

(cică ar fi fost evacuat la Soci, în Rusia, cu un avion militar rusesc; probabil ultimul avertisment - dacă ar fi rămas sau dacă s-ar întoarce, atunci.../ UPDATE: nu, n-a fugit - probabil nu-i vine-a crede c-ar putea fi ventilat)

[...] In reality, the war has been stopped, Russian troops are providing security on the territory of Azerbaijan, Stepanakert is not occupied by the Azerbaijani army. Some are talking about Turkey, but let’s face it – the Turks have been in Nakhchivan for a long time. Whether they will be in Karabakh is a separate question.

Another circumstance: as long as there was a pro-Russian government in Armenia, everything was quiet and peaceful. As soon as the “Sorosites” came (including in the form of Pashinyan), Armenia lost the war. Let me tell you a very likely truth: this was the task that Soros set for Pashinyan — to surrender Armenia and deprive Russia of its allies in Transcaucasia. [...]

[...] The Russian helicopter… I have a hypothesis that it was shot down by the same characters as the Russian plane near Turkey. Exactly in order to disrupt the agreement that was actually agreed upon (since Russian troops began to assemble even before this disaster). And the fact that it was shot down not by an anti-aircraft missile, but by a MANPADS also says a lot – in this situation, it is difficult to find who gave the order. But Aliyev took the blame on himself – and if it turns out that it were saboteurs, it will give him a lot of extra points. [...]

[...]  The Armenians (as well as all other residents of the former Soviet republics and eastern European countries) were clearly shown what Soros is in terms of their interests. Well, I personally hope that Pashinyan will be thrown into the trash. By the way, many people told me this, all those who trampled on Russian flags and demanded that the Russians get out of Armenia, as soon as the war broke out, immediately fled from Yerevan to the US, Canada and western Europe. These are the such national patriots under Soros …

So I highly recommend to Armenians (and Georgians) to ponder about who is their real friend and who is their enemy. If the conditional “Soros plan” had been implemented, the entire eastern Georgia would have been captured by the same Muslim militants (and Adjara is already partially controlled by them). And then what? To run towards Russia again? Will Russia receive them in this situation? How many centuries has Russia been at war with Turkey? For the sake of what? The peoples of Armenia and Georgia should think not about the catchy slogans that the morons bought by Soros throw at them, but about the real state of affairs. [...]

(THE REALITY OF PUTIN’S KARABAKH PEACE DEAL)

[...] After the leaders of Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a declaration to end the war, it became clear that Pashinyan‘s strategy of squeezing Russia out of the region did not work. Russia remains. Moreover, it is strengthening its position in the region by introducing peacekeepers. And the fate of Pashinyan himself raises questions – according to some reports, he fled Armenia on a Russian military plane and is currently in Sochi. Well, Sochi, of course, is better than Rostov. [...]

(ARMENIA PAID FOR PASHINYAN’S ELECTION WITH KARABAKH)

[...]  After the full implementation of the peace deal signed by Armenia with Azerbaijan after the de-facto loss of the war, the only factor providing security to the remaining Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be the Russian military presence there. At the same time, practical actions (not propaganda) of the current government of Armenia have demonstrated that Yerevan is not interested in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Even in the hardest days of the war, Yerevan has not initiated steps to recognize the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent state or as a part of Armenia. Also, no regular Armenian troops were sent to fight Azerbaijan in the region. [...]

(PRO-WESTERN ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT LOST NAGORNO-KARABAKH, BUT RUSSIA GAINED IT)

[...] At the same time, the current political crisis and the demand of Pashinyan resignation are a logical development in the current conditions. Since the very start of the war, the immediate resignation of Pashinyan and reversal of his anti-Russian policies were the key condition for the survival of Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, this did not happen. Even after the Russian move to rescue the remaining Armenians by forcing the sides to accept the ceasefire did not led to this. Instead, juridical Pashinyan remains the prime minister of the country.

Even more questions to the posture of the Armenian leadership raise from the battle of Shusha. The key Armenian stronghold was left almost without fighting. The video released by Azerbaijan from the town shows that buildings suffered very little damage and there were no indications of street clashes. The speed with which light Azerbaijani infantry seized the town is surprising.

These could be explained by two factors: A) The total demoralization of Armenian forces. B) The treason because even it is hard to expect that such a strong and important fortified point could be left without a fighting even in the conditions close to the panic. It is possible that Pashinyan intentionally ordered to surrender the town. The prospects of the Armenian state under such a wise leadership can hardly be bright. [...]

(POLITICAL CRISIS IN ARMENIA AND PASHINYAN’S RESISTANCE TO RESIGNATION DEMANDS)

[...]  We will see if this ceasefire will hold any more than the previous ones did, but this is a good sign.

The Azeris know that if they continue the war, it will get harder and harder for them.

The Armenians, who are the real losers in this war, now want to stop it ASAP.  They know that they have no chance of “victory” and that the best thing they can do now is to agree to new terms.

As for Russia, it was quite funny for me to see the so-called “Russia specialists” declaring how Russia had “lost control of the near abroad” when, in reality, the only party which actually benefited from this war was Russia!  Why?  Because this war has proven (or, if this ceasefire does not hold, will prove) that Russia is the sole kingmaker of the Caucasus.  Not Turkey, most definitely a dying USA, not Iran (though it is very powerful, I would give Iran the #2 rank) – but Russia and only Russia.  Furthermore, this war served an important purpose: to show the Armenians that their future depends on their relationship with Russia.  The cost of this “lesson” was huge, but this is hardly Russia’s fault.  As for Erdogan, his lesson is that while he can dream about a new, big, Ottoman Empire, that’s ain’t gonna happen as long as Russia exists (that is something NO Russia leader can allow to happen).

So what’s next (assuming this ceasefire holds)?

Nagorno-Karabach will return under Azeri rule, at least formally, de jure.  It will have an special status, obviously, and to reassure the population, Russian peacekeepers will be deployed in and around NK.  De facto, NK will remain a semi-independent province.  Confidence building measures will slowly be implemented, beginning with an exchange of dead bodies and prisoners.  Then the heavy weapons will be moved baack, and some weapons systems will be closely monitored (including Azeri drones).  The road linking NK to Armenia (which now is under Azeri fire control) will get some kind of special “civilians only” status, insuring that both sides refrain from using it for any bellicose purposes.  This is pretty standard stuff and it should work here too.

Besides, that is the only possible solution to this war anyway.

God willing, peace will return to the suffering people of Armenia and Azerbaijan.

And, God willing, the Armenians will learn their lesson and never forget it again: Russia is their only real friend.

(Update on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict)

[...] Pro-Armenian supporters “wishfully thought” that they'd continue to indefinitely perpetuate their illegal occupation of Azerbaijani territory, which led to them believing now-debunked reports which fed into their “confirmation bias”. Many analysts, however, were wrongly caught up in the dynamics of “groupthink” after convincing themselves that Russia and Turkey were “competing” in the South Caucasus, which blinded them to the reality of their tacit coordination during this conflict that ultimately resulted in their planned joint peacekeeping mission as announced by President Aliyev. Still others were aware of the truth but felt uncomfortable publicly sharing their views about it due to the heavy pressure put upon them by their peers to abide by the totalitarian concept of so-called “political correctness”. Taken together, these three factors led to ridiculously inaccurate claims being made about the most recent phase of the Nagorno-Karabakh War. Most of these mistakes were “innocent”, but some might have been deliberately committed in order to deceive others.

The Immediate Consequences

The world is quickly waking up to the new reality that the Russian-Turkish Strategic Partnership is one of the most important forces in the so-called “Greater Middle East”, from Azerbaijan down through Syria and even as far afield as Libya. It used to be that those such as the author who analyzed this emerging geopolitical fact were regarded as “conspiracy theorists” or worse by their peers, but now the only “conspiracy theorists” are those who deny the transregional significance of their bilateral relations. The Alt-Media Community is mostly discredited now and will have to work extremely hard to rebuild the trust that it lost among its audience after unintentionally or deliberately deceiving them regarding this conflict. The same holds true for the Mainstream Media and think tanks, some of which might have in hindsight been functioning as undeclared lobbyists of the once-powerful Armenian diaspora that has actually been defanged as a result of these developments after proving itself unable to manipulate others into intervening in the conflict to save their colonial project.

Their emotional fearmongering that Azerbaijan was preparing to commit an imminent “genocide” against the Armenians was revealed to have been nothing more than a manipulative infowar narrative intended to provoke a larger war. It'll arguably go down in history as being just as infamous as Bush Jr's' equally false “Weapons of Mass Destruction” claim which was made for the same reason but regrettably actually ended up resulting in the desired military outcome. Armenians are furious at being deceived by their “intellectuals” (both at home and abroad), as well as Pashinyan who suddenly capitulated despite reassuring everyone on an almost daily basis that there hadn't been any losses whatsoever and that “total victory is within reach”. So enraged were they that they even stormed the national parliament the night that their country's de-facto surrender was announced, which was incredibly ironic since it hints that a patriotic protest movement might eventually overthrow the same man who came to power on the back of a Soros-driven pro-Western Color Revolution.

What Comes Next?

It's unclear whether Pashinyan will resign (and possibly flee abroad), be overthrown (and consequently risk suffering a fate as dark as Ceausescu's), or somehow manage to retain power (albeit as a figurehead leader), but it's obvious that his political capital isn't anything like what it used to be. He's personally responsible for sending potentially thousands of Armenian men into the Azerbaijani meat grinder over the past seven weeks for what ended up being no reason at all, hence why his people are so furious with him. Furthermore, his government is responsible for committing war crimes against the Azerbaijani people so he might even face justice as The Hague, especially if his people and/or military overthrow him (the latter possibly with an intent to receive reduced sentences and/or immunity for their own crimes by handing him over). Azerbaijan will also likely see to it that Armenia pays restitution for its years of illegal occupation. As for Russia, it might stop discussing reports of “mercenaries” in Nagorno-Karabakh since it seems that it was all just an Armenian lie. [...]

(The End Of The Nagorno-Karabakh War: Retrospection, Clarification, And Forecast)

Cu gri-maro (sau bej închis) - teritorii-tampon care au aparţinut Azerbaidjanului (şi majoritar azere atunci), ocupate preventiv de Armenia/Arţakh în anii '90 (locuitorii azeri refugiindu-se - majoritatea - în Azerbaidjan). Zonele roşii din afara liniei groase albastre ("noua graniţă a Arţakhului") - teritorii din Arţakh recent ocupate de Azerbaidjan, probabil "definitiv" (iar în urma armistiţiului, "cedate oficial"). Conform acordului tripartit Azerbaidjan-Armenia-Rusia, teritoriile cedate vor trebui predate/preluate în etape, până la 1 decembrie 2020. Pentru o imagine mai mare, daţi click pe fotografie.